Latest Paris notary figures announce stable prices and increased sales volumes

Reporting on the Paris real estate market’s summer flourish, the Parisian notaries believe continued growth and steady prices are on the agenda for coming months.

The notaires of Paris and Île-de-France have published their analysis of the residential real estate market in the region for the third quarter of 2015. According to the report, the June-July-August figures confirmed the market’s recovery, despite the month of August being traditionally sluggish. In this timeframe, the property market recorded a 9% increase in activity over its average for the past ten years.

While sales volumes are steadily increasing, it is thought that prices will remain roughly stable or decrease slightly. The notaires attribute the average price per m2 summer jump — exceeding the 8,000€ per m2 in Paris intramuros in late August — to a “seasonal” increase that “traditionally boosts prices during the summer and before school starts.” They believe that prices in both Paris and its region will resume a downward trend from October onwards.

Indeed, the summer increase did not offset the overall decline in prices. In Paris, prices are still down by 1.8% compared to August 2014 and down by 2.1% in Île-de-France.

The notaires predict price stability in coming months; “prices per m2 should remain close to 8,000€ in Paris and 5,300€ in Île-de-France for the rest of the year.” Of course, these averages do not reflect the significant price gaps existing in the capital and its region. The same is true for price evolution, which progresses at uneven rates in different areas and according to property type. Indeed, prices for small surfaces rose recently, while falling for larger apartments.

Recent experiences at Paris Property Group, seems to contradict the Paris notaire’s predictions and hint that price increases may be on the way.  Kathryn Brown, client services director at Paris Property Group, was quoted recently in the New York Times. “The official indicators are trailing what’s going on here,” she said. “We actually had a bidding war on a property. That’s the first time that’s happened in recent memory.”

Overall the property landscape remains dynamic, with a clear recovery in sales volumes recorded. Nearly 45,000 homes were sold between June and August this year, that’s 18% more than during the same period in 2014. The surge in transactions was relatively consistent across property types: +19% for apartments and +16% for houses, though sales increased more in the region (+23%) and near suburbs (+17%) than in Paris (+8%).

The notaires latest report also looks back and examines real estate price trends between 1996 and 2012 in Île-de-France. It appears that prices soared in the late 90s in Seine-et-Marne, Essonne and Val-d’Oise — with price per m2 increasing by 1,700€, effectively multiplied by 2.3 — despite these three departments being the most affordable in the region. In the Hauts-de-Seine department price per m2 grew by 3,500€ during that same period, with prices thus multiplied by 2.8. In Paris, property cost 6,000€ more per square meter in 2012 than in 1996. This equates to prices increasing by 3.5 times in a little over 15 years.

Photo credit: Wikimedia /US Library of Congress’ Prints and Photographs