Paris real estate market update: Law of unintended consequences?

The market has cooled a bit from the extreme frenzy we saw in Spring 2017, where buyers desperate to take advantage of the extremely low interest rates generated near record volumes and price increases of 6.6% so far this year in Paris. The slight increase in interest rates does not seem to have harmed the purchasing power of households significantly, however, and the Paris real estate market continues to benefit from improving consumer confidence, a stronger job market and interest rates that are still very attractive. The extremely limited supply of property in Paris helps keep it in high demand and to counter occasional slowdowns that occur elsewhere in France, but looking ahead, will the law of unintended consequences intervene?

New restrictions may cause unintended consequences:

Second home buyers in Paris have been dismayed to see the new restrictions imposed by the Mairie of Paris on short term rentals, which are to take effect December 1st, 2017. This may have the unintended effect of boosting prices in the less touristic parts of Paris. Obtaining a commercial license to rent property in the 6th or 7th is all but impossible, with long waits and the need for professional assistance to navigate the process, but the process is somewhat less onerous in other parts of Paris. It could be that these new restrictions cause more investment oriented buyers to explore other worthy parts of Paris, leaving the most costly areas to the wealthy French, and high net-worth pied-a-terre buyers who can afford to keep their properties shuttered when they are not in residence.

We’re seeing a real uptick in British Brexit buyers who hope to avoid eventual travel restrictions by owning in Paris, as well as companies interested in locating in Paris. They tend to look in the areas on the North and East sides of Paris with good transportation connections to London. Happily, these areas also enjoy some of the most reasonable prices in Paris. Adding to that, the infrastructure improvements being added in the North of Paris due to the Grand Paris expansion of the metro system, as well as facilities for the upcoming Olympics, could launch a real renaissance in parts of Paris which have previously been among the most affordable.

Neighborhoods: The 12th is the new 11th

Gentrification continues apace, spreading out from the center, with the areas in the North and East parts of Paris enjoying a huge run up in value in recent years – but even so these areas remain among the most affordable. Chic new restaurants and concept stores mix with street markets and real Parisian neighborhoods in an eclectic mix that feels more authentic than some more central neighborhoods which have become victims of their own success. Especially hot right now are the neighborhoods of the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th that border the Marais. Prices hop up a minimum of two or three thousand euros per square meter just across the border in the Marais, where some prices now rival those found in the 6th and 7th. Stick close to the already well-established Marais or Montmartre, or choose areas located near amenities that are sure to bolster appreciation such as the Canal St. Martin in the 10th and the Promenade Plantée elevated garden in the 12th. These safe-bet areas are already dotted with wine bars, hip restaurants, and organic shops. For a longer term, perhaps even bigger price appreciation, consider looking in the 19th, adjacent to the Parc des Buttes-Chaumont, where the area between Canal Saint Martin and Buttes-Chaumont is likely to appreciate.