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Paris real estate defying all predictions for 2017

The extraordinary price growth seen this year in the capital has reached another summit. Recent figures showed the Paris price per square meter average in uncharted territory with all arrondissements seeing appreciation in the last 12 months. 

A figure no one anticipated

A notable French property listings site has recorded a price of €8,942/m2 in mid-June with predictions that €9,000 would be breached by the month’s end. The Paris Notaire figures confirming this will take a few months to appear but the fact remains the capital’s property market has seen growth no one anticipated at the start of 2017.

Century21 record a yearly growth figure of 7.7%, close to what the Notaires predicted would be the case by June in their first quarter report. With transactions exploding year-on-year, the good news for Paris property just keeps on coming.

Growth across the city 

And in a further testament to the market’s strength, all arrondissements have seen growth in the last 12 months according to Seloger, a prominent market observatory and listings site. This is not often the case, as the central arrondissements are made up of fewer, higher-value transactions more susceptible to defy market trends. The fastest growing arrondissements over the last 12 months are the:

  • 4th: 10.3%
  • 17th: 9.3%
  • 18th: 8.4%
  • 10th: 8.3%

The full table is viewable below. The dataset differs from that released by Century21, coming up with a slightly different city-wide average of €8,930/m2. Half of the city’s arrondissements now have a price/m2 above €9,000.

Arrondissement Price/m2 (€) Year growth Arrondissement Price/m2 (€) Year growth
1st 8,678 5.7% 11th 8,406 3.6%
2nd 9,587 6.8% 12th 7,985 6.0%
3rd 10,025 3.9% 13th 7,598 2.7%
4th 11,004 10.3% 14th 8,729 7.0%
5th 10,488 4.4% 15th 8,536 4.7%
6th 12,826 2.8% 16th 10,189 2.4%
7th 11,916 4.9% 17th 9,178 9.3%
8th 10,557 5.3% 18th 8,153 8.4%
9th 9,178 7.9% 19th 6,860 5.1%
10th 7,881 8.3% 20th 7,088 7.2%

Transactions defying all predictions 

The Paris Notaires have also released their latest quarter figures, this time for February, March and April. At the end of the period the price per m2 reached €8,510, maintaining the previous report’s (covering January-February-March) annual growth figure of 5.5%.

Transactions were also 31% higher than the same period last year with 9,880 properties sold in the capital (44,270 in the whole Ile-de-France region). The 70% year-on-year figure of the last report was not equalled which just goes to show how busy January must have been.

The Notaires have a much more conservative estimate of the summits the market will reach in the near-future. They are anticipating a figure of €8,900/m2 by the end of July while other observatories claim this has been breached already, though their figures include sales that have not yet been finalized.

Larger cities do well across France

The real estate market of big cities is more fluid and dynamic, but without overheating. Purchasers are committed and have confirmed financing plans before beginning to look at property. There are not many sellers and the number of properties for sale are dwindling – as a result prices are rising.

With a jump of 1% in June and + 8% over the past 12 months, average Parisian prices remain just below the € 9,000 announced by some. The price per M2 average for the Parisian real estate market slightly surpasses its 2011 levels without speculation or signs of over heating. 

Around Paris, in the Petite and Grande Couronne, prices are rising slowly but consistently.  Elsewhere, for most large cities, the prices are rising moderately.  Bordeaux is the only city for which signs of a runaway market persist, with a sharp rise in prices (+ 12.2% in one year), conversely, many medium- and small-sized cities suffer from lower prices and a troubled real estate market.


image © Max Pixel

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