Apartment Prices Hold at €9,520 Per Square Meter While Sales Volumes Rise 5% Year-Over-Year

The Paris real estate market shows signs of stabilization in late 2025, with apartment prices holding steady and transaction volumes posting modest gains. Data from the Paris notaires and national market indices indicate prices have stopped declining, though sales activity remains below 2023 levels.

Current Price Levels and Near-Term Projections

Apartment prices in Paris stood at €9,520 per square meter in July 2025, representing a 0.3% increase compared to July 2024. This marks a shift from the 11.7% decline Paris experienced between 2020 and early 2023. The national price index for Paris remained flat in September at 0.0% monthly growth, following several months of 0.3% monthly increases earlier in the year.

Forward-looking indicators based on pre-contracts suggest apartment prices will reach approximately €9,560 per square meter by November 2025. This represents a €40 increase from July levels and a €100 gain over the twelve-month period, translating to 1.1% annual growth. The modest trajectory indicates Paris is in a stabilization phase rather than entering a period of rapid appreciation or further decline.

Transaction Volume Trends

Paris recorded 7,950 apartment sales between May and July 2025, a 5% increase compared to the same period in 2024. However, this represents the slowest growth rate in the broader Île-de-France region, where overall sales increased 8% and suburban areas posted gains of 8-10%.

Current transaction volumes remain significantly below historical levels. Apartment sales in Paris are 9% lower than volumes recorded in 2023, indicating the market has not recovered to pre-correction activity levels.

Monthly patterns show volatility that underscores the fragility of the recovery. The first quarter of 2025 saw accelerated activity as buyers moved ahead of increased transfer taxes. May experienced a year-over-year decline in sales, while June and July posted increases. This inconsistency suggests the market has not established a sustained recovery trajectory.

The Paris notaires report in their September publication (but only covering transactions through July) that absent more significant price reductions, stable mortgage rates since March 2025 have not been sufficient to revive market activity to pre-2023 levels.

Equity Recovery Timelines for Different Buyer Cohorts

Analysis of the top 50 French cities reveals significant differences in equity recovery based on purchase timing. Paris remains one of four major markets where buyers who purchased in 2020 have not yet recovered their initial down payment when accounting for the property’s current value minus remaining mortgage debt.

In contrast, buyers who purchased before 2020 generally maintain substantial positive equity. For those who bought in 2015-2019, equity cushions remain intact despite recent price corrections. Paris buyers who purchased in 2023 or later will need additional time for mortgage payments to rebuild equity, given that prices have only recently stabilized.

Financing Conditions and Market Constraints

French mortgage rates for 25-year fixed loans currently stand at approximately 3.6 to 4% for non-resident buyers. These rates have remained stable since March 2025 but have not declined sufficiently to significantly expand buyer purchasing power at Paris’s current price levels.

The financing environment differs markedly from pre-2020 conditions when lower rates supported higher loan amounts. French banks typically lend up to 75% of a property’s assessed value to non-resident buyers.

The notaires report that political uncertainty could trigger further interest rate increases, which would compromise household borrowing capacity and delay acquisition plans. This potential risk contributes to continued market caution among both buyers and sellers.

Market Outlook for Remainder of 2025

Price projections through November suggest continued modest appreciation. The expected €9,560 per square meter price represents approximately 0.4% growth over four months from July to November. Combined with the 1.1% projected annual increase, this trajectory indicates Paris is stabilizing at current price levels rather than entering a period of significant movement in either direction.

The broader Île-de-France region shows near-zero projected price growth of 0.1% between August and November 2025 for apartments, with slightly stronger gains of 0.8% projected for houses in the outer suburbs. This suggests Paris may slightly outperform the regional average in the near term.

Sales volumes are expected to continue their gradual improvement, though the pace remains uncertain given political and economic factors that could affect interest rate policy. The gap between current transaction levels and 2023 volumes—currently 9% below for apartments—suggests the market has not fully recovered its pre-correction activity levels.

For potential sellers, the data indicates that the holding period matters significantly. Those who purchased before 2020 can sell with positive equity, while buyers from 2020 may need to wait longer for equity to rebuild or accept reduced proceeds. Buyers entering now face a market with stable but elevated prices relative to historical norms but lower than a few years ago and financing costs that remain above the historic lows of the 2015-2020 period. The notaires characterize the market as maintaining a “fragile equilibrium” with a “timid recovery” in sales volumes and price consolidation. 

Contact Paris Property Group to learn more about buying or selling property in Paris.